The cost analysis of sodium ion batteries proves it is most affordable at $40 per kWh for Na-ion versus Lithium batteries, Li-ion$137 per kWh. Therefore, it is expected that sodium ion batteries will replace Lithium batteries in most cases, including EVs (Engineering 2022)
A lower battery price will significantly decrease the price of EVs, projected average price $25k in 2030 writes James Dean @SCS. I project a consolidation to occur in the electric vehicle market, as prices drop steadily, acquisitions are certain, while other players will merge and form strong partnerships, as profit margin shrink among manufacturers.
And Lithium deposits on Earth are not adequate to drive the long-term clean energy goals, as Li + battery resources exist for only 2.5 Billion battery units, then all Lithium resources on Earth will be depleted (Carbon Report 2023). So, the sodium ion battery is the R & D path long-term writes James Dean @SCS.
While commercial clean energy drived from Nuclear Fusion is 15 + years away, requiring Tritium and Helium 3, both rare elements on Earth. Therefore, space exploration to mine elements is necessary. This will require continued significant investment in space technology.
Further, Hydrogen fuel cells require the catalyst, Platinum, an element which is 90% contained on Earth in South Africa and 10% in Russia. Hydrogen enables longer distance travel applications, so it's an optimal energy fuel option for larger commercial vehicles.
The answer to sustainable clean energy on Earth long-term will require a combination of energy resources including electric, hydrogen, and biofuel (E85 and algae oil), in order to reduce carbon in a cost effective manner worldwide. Each unique energy source has strengths and weaknesses specific to the consumer behavior i.e. usage application that provide cost effective benefits.
The future clean energy goals on Earth will require space exploration using a "heavy" reusable rocket capable of carrying 20 + ton payloads like the SpaceX Falcon, in order to mine rare elements to sustain our clean energy consumption writes James Dean @SCS.
EV Price and Profit Analysis
Regarding EV prices several factors play into reducing manufacturing costs including;
maintain similar design style features to reduce costs by $600 per vehicle
sodium ion battery R&D significantly reduces EV cost by 25% or more
selling direct to fleet customers such as corporate employee vehicles and commercial delivery customer fleets reduce selling costs by $1,000 per vehicle
partnerships and original equipment manufacturer business models using a dedicated EV platform to manufacture yields 2 to 3 times the production volume reducing costs nearly $1,500 to $2,000 per vehicle
I calculate our predictive analytics data finding a probable EV price range around $25,000 on-average by 2030. While manufacturer profit is likely between 3% to 7% per EV by 2030.
Today, the average transaction price of all vehicles (gas and EVs) hovers around $48,681. Currently, the average EV sale price is $65,050. On-average today's EVs sell for 34% more than gas automobiles, but that percentage price gap is narrowing rapidly with innovation.
EV brands grabbing market share in the clean energy space include;
GM Bolt ... price $27,000
Hyundia IONIQ5 $40,000
Nissan Leaf $28,000
Honda eNP1 SUV $26,000
Ford Lightning Truck ... price $39,500
Tesla Model 3 ... price $47,000 with 250 mile range
Merdeces Benz EQB SUV ... price $52,000 with 220 mile range
Honda N-Van EV $7,500 with 125 mile range - great local commuter option
The EV market will experience a big shake up over the next ten + years. While AI technology such as autonomous vehicle driving applications may also be in limbo for many years, as law makers in government hash out the legal implications and regulation aspects of AI assisted vehicles on our roads. The insurance companies will also weigh in voicing concerns. So, the entire clean energy push, ultimately rests with politicians and law makers to find bipartisan solutions that implement existing green technology that can deliver a zero carbon future.
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